Since late June, AFRIQOM has been tracking a clear and compelling trend: a consistent climb in Nigerian granular urea FOB prices. This upward trajectory reflects not only tightening supply fundamentals but also Dangote Fertilizer’s sharp reactivity to evolving market dynamics, capitalising on windows of global demand with precision
Here’s how it unfolded 👇
⏱️ 26 June: Dangote concluded cargoes above $420/t FOB, supported by strong Brazil netbacks at the time.
⏱️ 4 July: New deal lands in the mid-to-high $430s/t, up at least $10/t from the previous round.
⏱️ 14 July: Two deals struck at $465 and $480/t FOB, a sharp $30–45/t leap in just 10 days, surpassing Brazil netback levels and confirming a regional rally.
⏱️ 25 July: Another 30kt cargo changes hands in the mid-to-high $460s FOB, reinforcing the new price plateau.
⏱️ 28 July: Two fresh cargoes concluded in the low-to-mid $470s FOB Lekki, marking yet another $5/t increase and pushing Nigerian FOB values further out of range for Brazil.
Note the fast reactivity by the producer by offering these cargoes to the export market at a much faster rate than usual.
⚠️ Why these matters:
The current CFR Brazil market (~$480/t) no longer justifies new Nigerian FOB values, after freight is priced in. This makes it clear: Dangote’s August cargoes will likely be pivotingtoward markets with more workable netbacks and thinner freight spreads.
🔍 This evolving price arc reveals more than just firming values:
▪ It reflects Nigeria pricing flexibility.
▪ It signals how freight economics can redirect trade routes even at flat global prices.
▪ And it reminds us that open destinations are not just placeholders, they are strategic levers in a seller’s hands.
At AFRIQOM, we don’t just report the numbers, we track the signals that help decode Africa’s fertilizer trade flows in real time.
AFRIQOM Market Reporter
