Africa
Russia-Africa Summit
Russia has outlined plans to expand fertiliser exports and deepen investment in African manufacturing and distribution following the third Russia–Africa Summit, held in Moscow on 28–29 October.
The announcements come as AFRIQOM Terminal show Russia's share of fertiliser imports across monitored African markets rising to 36% in 2026 year-to-date, compared with 22% in 2025. The latest October data place Russia's share even higher, at 41.84%.
In Brief
Key summit developments
Russian exports: President Vladimir Putin reported fertiliser shipments to Africa exceeding 2.2 million tonnes in 2026, compared with approximately 1.5 million tonnes in 2025.
Local manufacturing: Russia and African partners agreed to promote joint mineral fertiliser production projects under a new cooperation framework.
Uralchem: The producer reiterated its ambition, first outlined in June 2026, to double annual African fertiliser shipments from approximately 1 million to 2 million tonnes.
Kenya: President William Ruto discussed opportunities for Russian investment in domestic fertiliser manufacturing and blending.
Ghana: President John Mahama identified fertiliser manufacturing among priority sectors for Russian investment and joint ventures.
Russian fertiliser industry: RAPU reported a 15% year-on-year increase in fertiliser shipments to Africa during H1 2026 and expressed interest in local packaging and distribution ventures.
African Union: The AU called for greater investment in local fertiliser production, technology transfer and agricultural infrastructure.
Sources: Interfax, Roscongress/RAPU, African Union Commission and Ghana News Agency
AFRIQOM data show Russia's market share accelerating
According to AFRIQOM Terminal, Russian-origin fertilisers accounted for 2.5 million tonnes of the 7million tonnes imported across monitored African markets in 2026 year-to-date, representing a market share of 36.07%.
This compares with 2 million tonnes out of 9 million tonnes recorded during 2025, equivalent to 22.05%. Russia's share has therefore increased by 14.02 percentage points.
The latest monthly figures show further concentration towards Russian supply, with October imports reaching 386,087 tonnes out of 922,802 tonnes, or 41.84%.
Separately, AFRIQOM's broader physical trade monitoring recorded 3,055,966 tonnes of Russian-origin fertiliser deliveries into Africa in 2026 to date, exceeding the 2,291,796 tonnes recorded throughout 2025 by 764,170 tonnes, or 33.3%.
Russian fertilisers remain prominent across African nitrogen, phosphate and compound fertiliser markets, including urea, DAP, CAN, AN and NPK. Ethiopia imported approximately 290,000 tonnes of Russian-origin DAP in 2025, while South Africa received 119,666 tonnes of Russian-origin urea during H1 2026. Russian cargoes have also featured in Kenya, Tanzania, Morocco, Mozambique and West African markets.
Russia's share of Africa fertiliser imports [in %]
Source - AFRIQOM Terminal
Russia and Africa advance local fertiliser manufacturing plans
Beyond export growth, the summit placed greater emphasis on developing fertiliser manufacturing and distribution capabilities within Africa.
The Russia–Africa action plan for 2027–2029 includes a commitment to facilitate joint mineral fertiliser production projects.
Kenya identified fertiliser manufacturing and blending among potential areas for Russian investment, with Uralchem and PhosAgro among the companies targeted for business discussions. Ghana also identified fertiliser manufacturing as a priority sector for Russian investment and joint ventures.
Back in June 2026, Uralchem outlined plans to double its annual fertiliser shipments to Africa from approximately 1 million tonnes to 2 million tonnes, an ambition reiterated around the Moscow summit.
Russian fertiliser producers have also expressed interest in establishing packaging and bagging operations across Africa, potentially expanding their downstream presence without necessarily creating new primary production capacity.
However, no specific new fertiliser manufacturing project has been confirmed with a final investment decision, committed capacity or construction timetable in the announcements reviewed.
That absence is consistent with AFRIQOM’s own record. The Africa Fertiliser Capacity & Pipeline register, carried on the AFRIQOM Terminal (V15.1 basis, assessed at 30 September 2026), tracks 49 fertiliser projects across 16 countries with 37.4mn t/y of finished-product nameplate ( 23.7mn t/y of it commissioned, under construction or contracted) plus a 14-project low-carbon ammonia watchlist and 38 disclosed financing instruments worth US$12.9bn. Not one of those rows carries a Russian sponsor, contractor, licensor, lender or offtaker: the engineering and capital behind Africa’s new capacity come from China, the Gulf, India, Italy, Japan, Korea and the development banks. The two countries that named fertiliser manufacturing as a target for Russian investment each hold a single register entry, and neither is Russian. Kenya’s geothermal urea/CAN proposal at Olkaria is a Kaishan (China) project with KenGen, and Ghana’s Atuabo complex is backed by Qatar’s Al Jedad Holdings. Both projects remain at Announced.
AFRIQOM View
Russia's growing influence in African fertiliser markets is increasingly measurable in physical trade flows, rather than simply reflected in the commitments announced at the Moscow summit.
AFRIQOM Terminal show Russian-origin fertilisers accounting for more than one-third of imports across monitored African markets in 2026, up from just over one-fifth in 2025. October's 41.84% share provides further evidence of the increasing concentration of supply from Russia, although individual monthly readings can fluctuate.
The expansion reflects both higher recorded Russian-origin volumes and an increased share of the markets monitored by AFRIQOM. It also highlights Africa's growing exposure to Russian supply conditions, including export availability, logistics and trade restrictions.
The Moscow summit points towards a broader Russian strategy extending beyond fertiliser exports into African manufacturing, blending, packaging and distribution. For African buyers, this could strengthen sourcing relationships and potentially support local supply chains. However, increasing reliance on one origin also creates commercial risks, particularly when availability or pricing conditions change.
Russia's expanding position in African fertiliser trade is already evident. The next test will be whether Moscow's manufacturing ambitions translate into committed investments and operational production capacity across the continent.
AFRIQOM Market Reporter
