Urea Deal
Nigeria’s Dangote Fertiliser is reported to have concluded a cargo of 30,000 tonnes of granular urea at $655/t FOB Lekki for April loading to an open destination. The deal marks a sharp repricing in the Nigerian market, representing an increase of roughly 39% from AFRIQOM’s Nigeria FOB assessment late last week, just six days after the outbreak of hostilities involving Iran began to disrupt regional energy and shipping dynamics.
April loadings, particularly second-half April positions, now carry heightened execution risk, given the uncertainty surrounding the evolving US/Israel–Iran conflict and the potential reaction go bureau - see below.
Elsewhere
Across North Africa, prices have moved in tandem with the global rally. In Egypt, Mopco is heard to have concluded a 5,000-tonne parcel of granular urea at $655/t FOB for March loading into a nearby market, confirming the rapid upward repricing across Mediterranean supply points.
In Algeria, indications have risen even further, with a 20,000-tonne April cargo reported at $679/t FOB. Algerian prices began the week closer to $566/t FOB, highlighting the scale and speed of the current rally.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Sabic is reported to have halted urea production/offers, adding another layer of uncertainty to regional supply availability. Separately, the company has announced that CEO Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh will retire on 1 April 2026, with Faisal Al-Faqeer appointed as the incoming chief executive.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed significantly as the conflict intensifies, with some market participants describing traffic as near-halted. Reports suggest China is in discussions with Iran regarding safe-passage arrangements for vessels navigating the corridor, an intermediary solution that some buyers/sellers could resort to - AFRIQOM is currently tracking fertiliser vessels currently in or at Anchorage of concerned ports in the region.
Price Reaction
Despite the sharp rally, some market participants view the recent transactions as partly speculative positioning, with traders seeking to secure tonnage ahead of potential further escalation. This behaviour can create self-reinforcing upward momentum, as witnessed this week across North African benchmarks.
Buyers, however, are increasingly cautious at current levels. Expectations that Chinese urea exports could resume once the domestic application season concludes, potentially within the next two months, are tempering aggressive purchasing. At the same time, some market participants view the Iran conflict as potentially short-lived, reinforcing a wait-and-see approach among buyers reluctant to chase the current price spike.
In the meantime, trading houses are scrambling to secure alternative origins for their urea supply contracts with India’s recent 1.3mn tonnes for delivery by the end of March. However, rapid price escalation is already challenging the economics of other origins where import parity is becoming increasingly strained at these levels.
AFRIQOM Market Reporter
