Urea Shortage
Signs of tightening nitrogen fertiliser availability are beginning to emerge in Kenya, according to market participants. AFRIQOM data broadly supports this view. Total nitrogen imports in the first quarter of 2026 reached around 47,000 tonnes, comprising roughly 31,500 tonnes of CAN and 15,400 tonnes of urea, compared with about 65,000 tonnes in the same period of 2025, implying a shortfall of around 28% y/y. The weakness is particularly concentrated in urea, where import activity appears especially limited, with only one parcel discharged in January.
On the phosphate side, however, the picture is notably stronger. DAP imports in the first quarter of 2026 reached around 84,000 tonnes, compared with roughly 52,000 tonnes in the same quarter of 2025. When NPs are added to the phosphate bucket, first-quarter arrivals rise to around 246,000 tonnes, versus only 118,000 tonnes in Q1 2025.
Imports' Forecast
Kenya’s fertiliser imports are projected to decline in 2026 under AFRIQOM’s current worst-case price scenario, but the fall is less severe on a full-year basis than a simple comparison with late-year buying patterns might suggest. Using the current severe-case forecast, Kenya’s total 2026 imports are estimated at ~724,000 tonnes, down 17.4% y/y from ~876,000 tonnes in 2025. The relatively moderate annual contraction reflects a very strong first quarter in 2026, which provided a substantial cumulative import base before the full impact of higher East Africa urea and DAP prices began to weigh on procurement. The stress is much more visible in the remainder of the year: April–December imports could fall by 47.4% y/y in the severe case, highlighting how sharply elevated landed prices may curb second half buying momentum.
Compared with previous years, the projected 2026 outcome sits between the Ukraine-war stress of 2022 and the much stronger 2025 benchmark. Kenya’s 2022 imports reached roughly 573,000 tonnes, so the current 2026 worst-case still points to a higher annual total, largely because this year started from a much stronger first-quarter base. By contrast, 2025 represents a far more robust procurement year, with stronger cumulative buying momentum sustained into the second half. In that sense, 2026 does not yet look like a replay of 2022 in annual volume terms, but it does point to a clear loss of momentum versus a more typical, better-supplied year such as 2025.
Cumulative fertiliser imports [in tonnes]
Note: Contact AFRIQOM for all potential forecast scenarios
Source - AFRIQOM Analytics
Price Forecast Note
Note that this forecast is based on a worst-case price scenario, assuming the Middle East war continues for a further three weeks, combined with the harshest price-to-volume elasticity settings in the import model. It also assumes continued Chinese export restrictions, strong import demand from India for both nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers, and persistently high raw-material costs.
East Africa CFR price forecast [in USD/t]
Note: Contact AFRIQOM for all potential forecast scenarios
Source - AFRIQOM Analytics
Middle East Dependence vs Supplier Depth Matrix
Kenya’s import performance may look relatively resilient even under the worst-case scenario, partly because strong first-quarter buying provided an initial cushion and because the steepest price rally occurred during a relatively low seasonal window. Structurally, however, Kenya remains exposed. In the Middle East Dependence vs Supplier Depth Matrix, Kenya sits in the lower-right quadrant, reflecting high dependence on Middle East supply, around 42% of imports, combined with only moderate origin diversification, at roughly five supplying origins across total fertiliser imports. This positioning suggests that Kenya remains vulnerable to global shocks affecting Middle East availability, freight, or pricing, even if short-term import performance can temporarily mask that exposure.
Middle East Dependence vs Supplier Depth Matrix
Source - AFRIQOM Analytics
AFRIQOM Take
Kenya may prove more resilient than initially expected in navigating the 2026 fertiliser shock, owing in part to its strong first-quarter import performance, which has already provided a meaningful buffer against the full impact of higher global prices later in the year. This reinforces the strategic case for AFRIQOM’s Emergency Buffer Stock Concept. If built around a disciplined strategic pricing framework, such a mechanism could do more than merely soften temporary market dislocation: it could materially reduce exposure to external shocks, stabilise procurement during periods of extreme volatility, and preserve continuity in fertiliser availability. Over time, this would provide governments and market participants with a practical instrument not only to limit annual contraction in crisis years, but also to protect the longer-term trajectory of market expansion — with broader implications for food security, fertiliser sovereignty, and farmer prosperity.
AFRIQOM Market Reporter
