IPL Urea Tender Update
India has so far received acceptance for 1,354,500 tonnes in its latest IPL urea tender, against an original requirement of 2.5mn tonnes, leaving 1,145,500 tonnes still uncovered, so far.
The update is broadly in line with AFRIQOM’s previous alert, where we argued that realistic acceptance was more likely to fall in the 1.3-1.5mn t range.
AFRIQOM Take
Acceptance of 1,354,500t is substantial, but it still leaves India short of nearly half of the tonnage it initially sought. If final acceptance remains around this level, the market is likely to start expecting another Indian urea tender in the near term.
In parallel, India is still drawing large exportable tonnes out of a tight global market at these prices, and any uncovered balance is likely to keep supporting replacement values for other destinations, including Africa.
On the West Coast at $935/t CFR, first-round acceptances reached 944.5kt out of a 1,500kt target, 63% covered. The East Coast at $959/t has so far confirmed only 410kt out of 1,000kt, 41%. The divergence reflects the depth of accessible supply by route rather than price: WCI draws on a broader pool of Baltic and Atlantic-origin cargoes with clear Suez routing, while ECI-facing supply is structurally thinner under current disruption conditions. What will Aditya Birla (ABGT) do? The firm's 1,350kt combined position across both coasts remains pending and would, if confirmed in full, effectively cover the 2,500kt target.
Rumours have started to circulate that acceptance has reached 2.8 million tonnes. This remains as rumour and lies on Aditya confirming its tonnes.
If that is to materialise, India would have swept available supply from producers and trader positions and will leave the rest of the world to scramble for remaining tonnes which raises more concerns on Africa’ position.
This is a developing story and AFRIQOM will revert with confirmation on the final awards in India’s IPL tender.
AFRIQOM Market Reporter
