Urea Tender Results [IPL/UREA/2026-27/01]
IPL has received bids for its 2,500kt urea import tender with the West Coast L1 at $935/t CFR from Millenium Commodity and the East Coast L1 at $959/t CFRjointly from Ameropa Asia and Chasemax International, both recent history records. The WCI result is +$515/t above the last IPL tender in November 2025 and +$405/t above the previous all-time record set in August 2025. The ECI premium over WCI of $24/t is the widest on record; it stood at +$2 in August 2025 and was inverted at −$1.50 in November 2025, confirming the structural loss of Middle Eastern granular supply to the East Coast.
Twenty-five bidders competed on the WCI with offers ranging from $935 to $1,136/t, a spread of $201/t. On the ECI, twenty CFR bidders offered between $959 and $1,136/t, a spread of $177/t, with an additional FOB offer from Fertiglobe. Combined headline volumes of 5,920kt significantly overstate real supply due to double-counting; physical tonnes available to match IPL's counter-offer are estimated at 1,300 to 1,500kt by one major trading firm, leaving India short of its 2,500kt target by approximately 1,000 to 1,200kt.
AFRIQOM Take
Working back from the L1 clearing prices using estimated freight rates for a 40,000-tonne bulk cargo, the implied FOB netbacks by origin can be compared against AFRIQOM's last published assessments of 10 April. Nigerian granular implies a netback of $877 to $887/t FOB, against AFRIQOM's Nigeria FOB assessment of $830–850/t on 10 April, an increase of approximately +$42/t in five days. North African granular implies a netback of $887 to $897/t FOB, against AFRIQOM's North Africa FOB of $842–858/t, a similar rise of around +$42/t. Both moves are plausible given the pace of the market this week.
Baltic origins present a sharper divergence: the implied WCI netback of $860 to $870/t FOB sits +$145/t above AFRIQOM's Baltic prilled FOB assessment of $700–740/t on 10 April. On the ECI at $959/t, the result is closely aligned with AFRIQOM's published granular urea east Africa CFR of $949–954/t, implying the India ECI premium above the African market was only $5 to $10/t, a remarkably narrow spread that confirms both markets are now pricing off the same constrained supply pool. One additional origin worth noting for WCI is Oman: with Sohar port sitting outside the Hormuz Strait, Omani product can ship freely to India's west coast at an estimated freight of $20–30/t, implying a netback of $905 to $915/t FOB against the L1 of $935, approximately +$95/t above AFRIQOM's Arab Gulf FOB assessment of $780–850/t on 10 April. OQ Trading, the Omani state producer, submitted a WCI bid at $1,099/t in this tender; should they choose to accept India's counter-offer at $935, the implied netback remains highly attractive relative to last published Arab Gulf benchmarks, making Omani tonnes a credible component of the supply that may ultimately be confirmed.
On China, some market participants had flagged 22 April as a potential date for a review of the urea export ban. However, one trader cautioned that any such review would only take place if the Chinese government itself chooses to convene it, and that there is no confirmed mechanism or commitment to do so. Industry sources at a recent Shanghai conference were cited as saying restrictions are unlikely to be lifted before August, after the peak domestic application season.
Assuming the ban remains in place, which is the base case, and the Hormuz Strait stays closed, the supply outlook for Q2 2026 is structurally tight. IPL is expected, in one scenario, to confirm awards well below its 2,500kt target once the counter-offer round concludes, and a follow-on tender is anticipated before end of April targeting the residual shortfall of 1,000 to 1,200kt. That tender would draw on the same constrained pool of Russia, Black Sea, Nigerian and Egyptian supply, with no new accessible origins coming into play. Pricing is therefore unlikely to fall materially from today's levels. Sellers who priced at $935 to $959 for this tender will have no incentive to offer the next round more cheaply, and buyers elsewhere. Brazil, South-East Asia, Pakistan, are competing for the same limited tonnes. Under this scenario, $935/t WCI represents a floor, not a peak, and the follow-on tender is expected to clear at similar or higher levels through Q2 if the Hormuz blockade continues.
AFRIQOM Market Reporter
