India’s NFL tender on 2 September drew an extraordinary 5.6m tonnes of urea offers from 25 suppliers, underscoring ample availability across key origins. While the figure includes short positions and double counting, it nonetheless confirms supplier readiness—China among them—to meet Indian demand.
Price levels have softened in response. Lowest offers were tabled at $462.45/t CFR east coast India and $464.70/t CFR west coast. The narrow spread across bids points to a unified market view, with sentiment shifting lower. With delivery required by end-October, the outlook for Q4 has turned bearish as global supply, stretching from Russia, the Arab Gulf, Nigeria, Iran and North Africa, looks set to outpace demand. The depth of the correction will hinge on the scale of Chinese tonnes committed to Indi’s NFL.
Parallel moves in Africa add to the market dynamics. Nigeria’s Dangote Fertilizer has about 90,000 tonnes of granular urea out on tender, with bids closing today, levels likely to be influenced by India’s price discovery. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s Agricultural Business Corporation (EABC) is tendering for around 450,000 tonnes of granular urea, closing 16 September. The timing offers suppliers a timely outlet to divert unsold tonnage post-India, and fort EABC to receive competitive offers.
Market participants are now focused on India’s NFL counter offers, expected on 5 September. These will provide a clearer gauge of producer willingness to supply and will set the tone for the extent of the price correction in the short-to-mid-term.
AFRIQOM Market Reporter
