Southern Africa
Weather | crop | fertiliser | analysis
A strong El Niño is taking shape just as Southern Africa moves towards its main planting season. The weather signal is increasingly clear But what it will mean for crops, and potential fertiliser demand, is much less uniform.
SADC's 2026/27 regional climate outlook favours below-normal rainfall across much of central and southern Africa during October-December, covering much of Angola, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, most of South Africa, Eswatini and Lesotho. Above-normal temperatures are also favoured across much of the region.
El Niño is already established and is expected to strengthen further, potentially reaching strong to very strong intensity around October-December, precisely when much of the region will be planting and establishing its summer crops. But this is not a uniform Southern African drought forecast.
The far north of Zambia and Malawi has a more favourable rainfall outlook, while individual countries enter the season with very different grain supplies, soil-moisture conditions, input availability and financial capacity.
The first risk is getting the crop established
For fertiliser consumption, the total amount of rain received over an entire season may not be the first thing that matters, as timing of that rain can be more important. Farmers can still produce a reasonable crop in a below-average rainfall year if rainfall is sufficiently well distributed. A very different outcome follows when planting rains arrive, seed and fertiliser go into the ground and then several weeks of dry weather follow.
This is the case in Zimbabwe's official outlook as it makes that risk particularly clear. The Meteorological Services Department expects an increased chance of below-normal rainfall nationwide during October-December. The dry signal continues into January-March across much of the country, although southern and western areas have somewhat better prospects.
More importantly, Zimbabwe warns that rainfall may be highly erratic, with a significant portion of the country potentially seeing no effective start to the season. The outlook cites 2015/16 and 2023/24 as analogue seasons in which seasonal onset failed across large areas.
That is where the fertiliser story becomes relevant. Imports do not necessarily fall when the weather forecast deteriorates. By then, product may already have been tendered, procured, dispatched and even distributed.
The response happens further down the chain impacting planting to be delayed. Basal fertiliser application could be postponed or reduced. And if crops establish poorly, another decision follows weeks later: whether there is enough yield potential left to justify spending money on urea, CAN or other nitrogen for top dressing.
So one intriguing scenario, entirely possible, is to to see solid fertiliser imports at the same time that underlying farm demand is starting to weaken.
Zambia enters with a substantial cushion
Zambia comes into this season from a much stronger position than it did before the devastating 2023/24 drought. The government's latest crop forecast puts 2025/26 maize production at 4.94mn tonnes, up from around 3.9mn tonnes a year earlier and the largest maize crop on record. The Ministry of Agriculture attributes the recovery to favourable weather, timely input distribution and government agricultural programmes.
The weather risk is concentrated further south. SADC favours below-normal rainfall over southern Zambia during October-December, while the extreme north has better rainfall prospects. We note the distinction as it provides an important view. A difficult planting season in Southern Province does not automatically translate into a national crop crisis, particularly with a large previous harvest behind the country and better rainfall prospects further north. For fertiliser, the same logic applies. Demand could remain relatively resilient nationally even if southern farmers become more cautious, unless poor conditions spread more widely or persist deep into the growing season.
Malawi has recovered, but remains vulnerable
Malawi's position is stronger than it was a year ago, but its margin for error remains relatively narrow raising the weather risk. The 2025/26 maize crop is estimated by the Ministry of Agriculture at around 3.3mn tonnes, up about 15% from 2.86mn tonnes the previous season. Even so, the crop remains below estimated annual national maize requirements of around 3.5-3.7mn tonnes, while some 2.6mn people are expected to require food assistance during the coming lean season.
Now another weather risk is approaching: Malawi's Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services expects a high chance of below-normal rainfall across most of southern and central Malawi, while much of the north has normal-to-above-normal prospects. That north-south divide could produce very different crop and fertiliser outcomes inside the same country.
Economics add another layer.
AFRIQOM forecast for local fertiliser costs for the forthcoming season points at higher prices compared to the pre-Iran-war baseline. When El Niño crop shocks are added to higher fertiliser and fuel costs, and when combined with IFPRI modelling, an average 8.1% decline in agricultural GDP is expected, although the range of outcomes is very wide. Under the average El Niño scenario, maize imports rise to almost three times the baseline level.
These GDP related numbers are scenarios, not forecasts, and IFPRI itself stresses the uncertainty. But they expose the dilemma facing Malawi as poor rainfall increases the need to protect yields. At the same time, expensive fertiliser and deteriorating crop prospects can make farmers increasingly reluctant, or likely unable, to spend more money on a crop whose potential is already being lost.
Zimbabwe has put more product and production in place
Zimbabwe faces one of the clearest dry signals in Southern Africa, but it has also made a visible effort to build agricultural protection ahead of the coming summer. Farmers planted 130,316 ha of winter wheat, exceeding the government's 125,000 ha target. The original government programme targeted 662,500t of wheat production from 125,000 ha, although harvesting has only recently begun and the final crop is therefore not yet known.
AFRIQOM DataBoards also show fertiliser imports from South Africa nearly doubled during January-July 2026. Neither development insulates Zimbabwe from a poor summer maize crop. Wheat does not replace maize in the food balance, while fertiliser already inside the country only protects production if farmers are able to plant and use it effectively. But Zimbabwe is clearly not entering El Niño empty-handed.
The critical question over the next few months will be whether the rainfall allows those inputs to be converted into crop production.
Mozambique, region by region
Mozambique may prove particularly difficult to describe through one national number. The SADC outlook favours below-normal rainfall over much of Mozambique during October-December, while northern areas have comparatively better rainfall prospects.
Mozambique stretches across very different climatic and agricultural zones, meaning national rainfall averages can hide large variations in actual planting conditions. A weak start in one of the central or southern producing regions could hurt fertiliser offtake locally without producing the same response elsewhere in the country. There is also another complication. Even during an El Niño season, Mozambique remains exposed to tropical systems, flooding and periods of excessive rainfall. A broadly dry seasonal signal does not mean every region will remain dry throughout the season.
For AFRIQOM, Mozambique will therefore need to be watched increasingly at provincial rather than national level as the rains begin.
South Africa enters with a strong grain buffer
South Africa enters 2026/27 from one of the strongest agricultural starting positions in the region. The latest Crop Estimates Committee forecast puts the 2026 commercial maize crop at a record 17.402mn tonnes, up around 4% from the previous crop.
Including an estimated 695,025 tonnes of non-commercial maize production, South Africa's total crop reaches approximately 18.10mn tonnes.
The country also received above-normal rainfall during the 2025/26 summer, improving dam levels and soil moisture across many summer-rainfall areas before the onset of the new El Niño.
That is a considerable buffer, but it does not remove the risk to the next crop. SAWS expects El Niño to persist through the 2026/27 summer, with below-normal rainfall indicated across many areas and higher temperatures increasing the risk of moisture stress. For dryland maize and soybean farmers, planting rainfall and follow-up rains will be critical. Irrigated producers face a different calculation: they are less dependent on immediate rainfall but more exposed to whether stored water can carry crops through a hotter and potentially drier summer. And because South Africa is by far the region's largest fertiliser market, over 2.2 million tonnes of imports, relatively modest changes in planted area or application rates can translate into significant fertiliser tonnage, and later to crop outcome.
Fertiliser demand will not move in a straight line
The simple conclusion would be that El Niño is bearish for Southern African fertiliser demand. But that would be premature conclusion as it It is certainly too early to call.
Ahead of planting, weather risk can actually encourage governments and commercial farmers to secure inputs rather than cut them. Government subsidy programmes can continue regardless of the forecast, particularly where procurement has already taken place. However, this is not yet seen and remains a good risk management strategy.
If rains arrive late, basal fertiliser movement can slow. If seed goes into dry ground or emerging crops fail, farmers may replant, or stop. And if crop condition deteriorates badly enough during December and January, later nitrogen applications become particularly vulnerable. There is little economic logic in top dressing a crop whose yield potential has already collapsed.
A second effect can follow if the weather shock becomes serious enough. Governments which began the season spending foreign exchange on fertiliser can find themselves several months later needing the same foreign exchange to import maize and other food staples. And this is a serious risk to consider and manage. At that point, food imports, fertiliser procurement and agricultural support begin competing for the same money. That is when a climate event starts becoming a fertiliser-market event.
The next eight to twelve weeks to tell us much more
None of the above means Southern Africa is already facing another drought. Seasonal outlooks describe probabilities, not outcomes, and rainfall within an El Niño year can vary enormously between countries, provinces and even neighbouring farming districts. What matters now is what actually happens on the ground.
AFRIQOM will be watching the onset of the rains, planted maize and soybean area, duration of early dry spells, soil moisture,, fertiliser offtake across the main Southern African markets.
Lastly, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique and South Africa are entering the same El Niño with very different grain positions, input availability and capacity to absorb a poor season. The same weather shock is therefore unlikely to produce the same crop, or fertiliser, outcome across Southern Africa.
AFRIQOM Market Reporter
