During the Africa CEO Forum Annual Summit in Kigali, Aliko Dangote, Chairman of the Dangote Group, made a bold declaration: that Africa will no longer need to import fertilizers within the next three to four years, citing anticipated self-sufficiency in potash, phosphate, and urea. Currently producing three million tonnes of urea annually, Dangote expects this figure to double to six million tonnes within twenty months—on par with Egypt’s total capacity. The plan is part of a wider strategy to drive industrial transformation and reduce Africa’s reliance on imports.
But how realistic is this target?
At AFRIQOM, we recognize the ambition behind such a vision—and its potential to reshape Africa’s agricultural and industrial future. However, several key questions emerge:
On Urea:
Dangote Fertilizer’s current export profile reveals a clear imbalance—while it has two urea production trains in Nigeria, the volume shipped to African countries remains minimal compared to exports to non-African markets. Achieving African self-sufficiency would require not just capacity expansion, but a decisive shift in market strategy. It would mean prioritizing intra-African trade over more lucrative global markets, adopting pricing strategies tailored for African buyers, and navigating a landscape shaped by infrastructure, affordability, and policy alignment. Is such a shift commercially feasible—and politically supported?
On Potash:
Dangote’s reference to potash likely alludes to the vast untapped reserves in the Republic of Congo. Yet, history tells us that developing African potash assets is no small feat. Projects have faced numerous setbacks due to high capex, logistical challenges, and regulatory complexities. While the Congo Basin holds great promise, bringing potash to market at scale within four years would be an unprecedented achievement.
On Phosphate:
Africa already possesses a surplus of phosphate—driven by large-scale producers in Morocco and South Africa, with additional capacity in Egypt and Tunisia. The issue here is not production but rather intra-continental trade and localized beneficiation. Will new Nigerian production significantly move the needle on self-sufficiency when Morocco alone already covers Africa’s phosphate needs several times over?
Beyond Volumes:
Fertilizer self-sufficiency is about more than just tonnage. It involves complex value chains, local distribution networks, trade agreements, pricing mechanisms, agronomic relevance, and competition from global suppliers like Russia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. High-nitrogen content fertilizers, custom blends for specific African soils, and seasonal demand variability all add layers of complexity.
Our View:
Dangote’s vision is admirable—and we applaud the ambition. But delivering self-sufficiency across a continent as diverse and complex as Africa, in three to four years, is a monumental task. It cannot be achieved by a single player alone. This will require collaboration across governments, private sector players, development banks, and farmer cooperatives. It will demand infrastructure, incentives, logistics reform, and regional trade harmonization.
We firmly believe Africa will become fertilizer self-sufficient. But will it happen by 2028? That remains a question—and one worth discussing.
We want to hear your thoughts. Join the conversation.
AFRIQOM Market Reporter
