Phosphates' Prices Surging, Eyes on India for Urea Price Direction

Analysis

Rising Phosphates Price Momentum Continues –

Egypt’s DAP prices reinforced the bullish sentiment in the phosphates market, reaching $740/tonne FOB, a sharp $53/tonne increase month-on-month. The news underscores resilient buyer demand despite escalating price levels amid tight supply fundamentals.

The firming trend is equally visible in India, the global price-setter in current global fundamentals. A Jordanian 45,000-tonne DAP cargo is heard to have been concluded in the mid-$740s per tonne FOB to a trading firm for the Indian market. This translates to a potential CFR India level of $761/tonne, marking a new high.

The upward trajectory is further validated by movements in Triple Superphosphate Fertilizer (TSP) prices across the globe.

Urea Market, Eyes on India as New Tender Out –

Global urea markets have entered a critical phase as India’s National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) issued its latest import tender, scheduled to close on 12 June. The outcome is expected to define short-term price direction, particularly against the backdrop of uncertainty surrounding Chinese export policy.

In the spot market:

• A Handysize cargo of granular urea from Algeria has reportedly traded in the low $400s/tonne FOB for June loading—providing a fresh reference point for North African supply.

• In Brazil, CFR prices remain firm, with buyer acceptance of higher price levels reflecting strong seasonal demand and constrained domestic availability.

• In the Arab Gulf, a 45,000-tonne urea cargo for July loading has reportedly been concluded at mid-$380s/tonne FOB, marking a $10 increase over last week’s business.

Conversely, Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) prices are facing seasonal pressure in Europe, where off-season demand has triggered a corrective move to the downside. This opens the seasonally opportunity for African buyers to secure cargoes where some countries record a shortage of the nitrogen fertilizer.